Key Points:

• Bitcoin is consolidating between $90K and $110K, awaiting a potential breakout.
• U.S. CPI data, set for release today, could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
• A lower-than-expected CPI could boost Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

Bitcoin Awaits CPI Data for a Major Breakout

Bitcoin is poised for a significant move as traders and investors closely monitor the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January. The cryptocurrency has been consolidating in the $90,000 – $110,000 range, and today’s report from the U.S. Labor Department is expected to be a major catalyst.

The CPI data, scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC, is projected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, slightly lower than December’s 0.4% rise. This reading will likely play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.

Market Impact: Interest Rates and Bitcoin’s Response

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve may either keep rates unchanged or reduce them this year. A lower-than-expected CPI could lead to a decline in Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar—both conditions that traditionally boost demand for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Accumulation Trends Suggest a Potential Surge

Crypto analyst Martinez highlighted in a recent post on X that Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score is near zero, signaling ongoing consolidation. He suggested that a shift in demand could be the spark for Bitcoin’s next big move.

However, while investors remain optimistic about a potential boost, higher inflation expectations could limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates aggressively, tempering hopes for a sustained Bitcoin rally.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

If the CPI report surprises on the downside, Bitcoin could see a surge in demand, breaking out of its current range. On the other hand, higher-than-expected inflation could push back rate-cut expectations, leading to uncertainty in the crypto market.

Investors will be closely watching how Bitcoin reacts in the hours following the report’s release. Will it finally break out, or will inflation concerns hold it back?